Saleem F, 2025. Assessing the effects of climate change on the runoff of glaciers and snowmelt in a mountainous region using remote sensing and snow runoff modeling: a case study of Gilgit Baltistan. Trends in Animal and Plant Sciences 5: 29-45. https://doi.org/10.62324/TAPS/2025.064

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Although alpine glaciers are not directly affected by human populations, they are vulnerable to the repercussions of climate change resulting from human activity. The main origin of water in the Indus River is the process of snow and glacier melting in the northern part of Pakistan, which includes the majestic Himalayas, snow-covered Karakoram, and Hindukush mountains. Accurate measurement of the amount of water flowing in rivers due to the melting of snow can help in efficiently managing the necessary water resources required for generating hydropower and irrigation purposes. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the discharge of glacial meltwater in the Gilgit River basin. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data is employed to generate the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for the specified region. The SRM employs various elements like Snow Cover Depletion curves, temperature, and precipitation, as well as features such as degree-day factor, recession coefficient, runoff coefficients, time lag, critical temperature, and temperature lapse rate. However, snow cover numbers are both simple and essential for the SRM. The extent of the snow-covered region is determined by the utilization of satellite data acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The study findings indicate that the yearly precipitation varies between 148 mm and 700 mm, with an average basin precipitation of 350 mm. The average monthly flow of the basin is 288 cubic feet per second (cusec). The basin's water production is determined to be 9.09 billion cubic meters (750 millimeters). The initial snow in the Gilgit River basin contributes approximately 78.3% to the total runoff, whilst rainfall contributes 19.5%. The contribution of new snow to runoff is rather low, at around 2.2%. The average yearly temperature is projected to rise by approximately 0.30°C between 2011 and 2030, 1.30°C between 2031 and 2050, and 3.1°C between 2051 and 2099. The mean annual temperature of the Gilgit catchment is projected to rise by 4.7 °C by the end of the 21st century. By raising the yearly maximum and minimum temperature by 1.24°C, there will be a 16% rise in summer flows. Furthermore, if this temperature is further increased to 2.78°C, there will be a 34% increase in summer flows. An observation revealed that a 10% increase in the cryosphere area results in a 13% rise in summer flows, while a 20% increase in the cryosphere area leads to a 27% increase in summer flows in the Gilgit River.